Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
